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I manage CIPFA Finance Advisory Networks and I am a very experienced accountant,manager, facilitator, trainer and presenter with a very wide experience of local authority and not for profit finance, accounting,management and leadership.

Thursday, 25 August 2011

COLONEL GADAFFI -- Friend or Foe?

Was he really a friend of ours?
It fills me with a certain degree of scepticism about human nature. When Tony Blair in 2005 welcomed Colonel Gadaffi back into the fold after he had renounced his WMD I was always unsure about this as the level of political repression in Libya was still severe and this was always just a gesture on Gadaffi"s part to gain international acceptance. Libya's status as an oil rich country always had a lot to do with our politicians creeping over there to do trade deals with this unsavoury individual. Yes if we didn't do it someone else would but it still shouldn't make us feel any better.

I am still not sure as to why this all changed so quickly why did he become our foe when he was our "friend". He did after all apologise for his WMD and perhaps we should have forgiven him? Or perhaps we were waiting for a credible opposition to form itself into a force that might overthrow him? Once that force crystallised then we were ready to sacrifice millions of pounds for an air blockade along with the French and Americans and our other Nato allies. It seems to be working but Mr Gadaffi is presently nowhere to be seen. What of the aftermath of all this? Will it produce a stable political outcome or another Iraq style bloodbath? The only thing that unites all the current rebels together is their hatred of Gadaffi, when he has gone they will have lost their unifying element and they will need to work with each other to rebuild the country. This is notoriously difficult in the Arab world where factionalism, tribalism and other sectional interests often predominate these situations. Will it be CIVIL WAR OR CIVIL PEACE? One thing is certain -- The West will need to supervise the re-building of Libya both structurally and politically orelse chaos will ensue. At least if Libya's assets are unfrozen the costs of the re-building will be l;argely paid for. What about those politicians and other cronies who beat a path to Gadaffi's door? Does the LSE regret accepting a donation however indirect, from the Libyan government? I'm sure they do, but the real lesson of this is to choose very carefully who your friends are and not be swayed by how much (oil) money they have. After all it may not always be in their power to share that money with you. As we have now found out with Mr Gaddaffi himself.

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